基于电力生产景气指数的我国发电行业分析与预测

随着我国可再生能源发电的蓬勃发展，传统发电行业受到了巨大冲击，行业发展的不确定性快速增加。借助景气分析方法，从电力生产侧的视角出发，科学选取了影响电力生产发展的相关指标，编制了全国电力生产景气指数，对我国发电行业近年来景气波动状况进行了实证研究。结果表明，我国发电行业的景气波动周期大约为2年，我国电力生产景气在2020年将保持上升，并在2021年有所回落。我国应继续控制电源装机容量的增长速度，加快实现不同电源结构间的优化配置。

Analysis and Forecast of China's Power Generation Industry Based on Power Production Prosperity Index

With the prosperous development of power generation of renewable energy source in China, traditional power generation industry suffers tremendous shock and it leads to the rapid increase of the uncertainty of the industry development. Firstly, to forecast the industrial trend at the power production side, by virtue of prosperity analysis method and starting from the viewing angle at power production side, relevant indicators impacting power production and development were scientifically chosen. Secondly, the prosperity indices of nation-wide power production were scheduled to conduct the empirical research on the prosperity fluctuation of China’s power generation industry in recent years. Research results show that the period of prosperity fluctuation is about two years approximately and the prosperity of China’s power production is on the rise in 2020 and will slightly fall in 2021. Thus, the growth rate of installed capacity of power source should be remained in control and the implementation of optimized configuration among different power source structures should be speeded up