The application of risk analysis to international trade in animals and animal products

In an era when arduous land and sea journeys separated exporting and recipient nations, the duration and stress of transport dictated localised sourcing of stock and provided an implicit quarantine. Clinically latent infection, which remained undetected prior to embarkation, often surfaced and was eliminated before reaching the importing country. Many nations which would not accept the risk of importation, on clinical grounds, could effectively isolate themselves by prohibiting entry. Passive acceptance characterised much of the response of industry to the perceived wisdom behind such decisions. Advances in transportation technology now permit the accumulation of an export consignment from across an entire country. The assembled shipment is a sentinel for the infection experience of the national herd. The journey to the final destination is measured in hours, rather than weeks. Parallel diagnostic and epidemiological advances face the challenge of compensating for the risks attendant in such widespread and rapid sourcing of stock. Nations which judge the risks as unacceptable face a concerted legal challenge on a series of levels, both domestic and international. Refusal of legal importation can be circumvented easily through the smuggling of germ plasm. National Veterinary Services must respond to the economic, social and political realities of this new international trading environment. The means of facing this challenge through quantitative risk analysis are described. The theory of risk analysis, as well as the qualitative and quantitative evolution of the import applications of this analysis, is explained. Current challenges and potential solutions are discussed.