Analysis of Polychlorinated Biphenyl (PCB) Loading Trends in Lake Michigan

PCB concentrations in coregonid fishes (bloater chubs) collected from Lake Michigan between 1972 and 1980 are used to infer an historical loading trend for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). A mass balance model was developed to describe the dynamics of PCBs by assuming that historical fish concentrations are proportional to concurrent water column concentrations of PCB. The validity of this assumption is strengthened, since the data represent a single species of fish (a pelagic feeder), a specific age class of that species, and a single laboratory performing the collections and analysis of the data. The results of model analysis indicate that PCB loading to Lake Michigan during the period of observation can be described by a linearly decreasing trend. The calibrated model also forecasts the response of selected fish species to various loading scenarios. Forecast results indicate that a continuously decreasing load will result in compliance with U.S. and Canadian guideline value for human consumption by 1987. However, should PCB loadings not continue to decrease, compliance with the proposed U.S. and extant Canadian guideline of 2.0 mg/kg is doubtful. Forecast accuracy may be improved by the availability of precise measurements of water:fish distribution coefficients.