基于非理性博弈的舆情传播仿真建模研究

随着社交网络的不断发展，借助社交网络进行传播的舆情信息的威胁越来越大. 本文利用博弈论的方法研究了舆情信息的传播机制，从理性博弈和非理性博弈的角度出发对个体与邻居的交互行为进行建模. 随后以目前较为成熟的传染病模型为基础，通过引入传播学中的社会威慑因素来构建基于非理性博弈的舆情传播模型，以实现适应舆情传播研究的仿真系统，继而将基于非理性博弈的舆情传播模型在无标度网络和小世界网络上的动力学特征进行理论分析. 在仿真环境中对非理性博弈的舆情传播模型进行实验，分析模型参数、网络密度和舆情传播源对舆情传播的影响，其结果符合理论分析结果. 最后对无标度网络上舆情传播的控制策略进行了研究，包括：社会威慑方法、目标免疫方法和正面消息方法，为社交网络上的政策制定提供了理论基础.

Simulation and Modeling of Non-rational Game Based Public Opinion Spread

With the continuous development of social networks, the threat of public opinions which spread on the social networks is growing accordingly. This paper studies the dissemination mechanism of public opinion based on the method of game theory, and builds a game model of agent interaction with neighbors form the view of rational and non-rational games. Then on the basis of the mature epidemic model, we implement a simulation system. The system can adapt to the research of public opinion spread by proposing a public opinion spread model based on non-rational game, and analyze the dynamics characteristic of the public opinion spread model based on non-rational game theoretically in scale-free networks and small-world networks. In the simulation environment, we experiment on the public opinion spread model based on non-rational game to analyze model parameters, network density. The infectious source's affection on spreading. The experimental results agree with the theoretic analysis. Finally, a control strategy of the spreading on scale-free network, which includes social deterrence methods, target immune methods, and positive messages method, is studied to provide a the theoretical basis for policy-making on social networks.