Consequence-based structural design approach for black swan events

The metaphor of black swan refers to unpredictable events like 9/11, the Indian Ocean tsunami, or the Oklahoma City Federal Building bombing, that cause catastrophic consequences for structural system safety. The likelihood of occurrence for such unforeseen events cannot be estimated from the observed data or prognosticated by experts. The absence of event and likelihood information renders futile the application of usual risk-based methods for design. Therefore, a shift from the probabilistic approach to consequence-based structural design is necessary for coping with the unexpected demands. This is accomplished through the conceptual development of a system capacity oriented design approach, where structural members are designed for variable reliabilities based upon their contribution to causing adverse system consequences. Information about general structural integrity encoded in the stiffness matrix is applied, using member consequence factors ranging from 0 to 1, for determining a member’s contribution towards system response. The structural system is designed using member consequence factors as additional partial factors on the resistance side of the design equations. The consequence-based scheme does not need a triggering hazard event (or its likelihood) and is an apt structural design approach for black swan events.