Cost-effectiveness fuzzy analysis for an efficient reduction of uncertainty |
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Authors: | Uwe Reuter Ulrike Schirwitz |
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Affiliation: | a Faculty of Civil Engineering, Technische Universität Dresden, 01062 Dresden, Germany b Institute of Construction Informatics, Technische Universität Dresden, 01062 Dresden, Germany |
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Abstract: | Many planning and production processes are characterized by uncertain data and uncertain information. For realistic modeling of such processes these uncertainties have to be considered. The new approach presented in this paper takes epistemic uncertainty into account, for which fuzzy set theory is applicable. In some cases it is possible and useful to reduce epistemic uncertainty by additional monetary investments. It is postulated that uncertain forecast values, e.g. expected safety, quality, or the completion date of a structure, can be improved or scheduled more precisely by a higher investment. Aim of the presented cost-effectiveness fuzzy analysis is the evaluation of the effectiveness of monetary investments on the reduction of uncertainty of the analyzed forecast values. |
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Keywords: | Cost-effectiveness fuzzy analysis Cost-effectiveness analysis Fuzzy analysis Epistemic uncertainty |
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