| 基于蒙特卡罗法的防化装备维修器材消耗预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 张良华,顾进,吴明飞,唐业军,孙牧.基于蒙特卡罗法的防化装备维修器材消耗预测[J].兵工自动化,2010,29(4):54-57. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张良华 顾进 吴明飞 唐业军 孙牧 |
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| 作者单位： | 防化指挥工程学院1系,北京,102205;防化指挥工程学院,研究生管理大队,北京102205 |
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| 摘 要： | 从影响维修器材数量的主要因素分析入手，在构建的防化维修器材需求量预测模型的基础上，以蒙特卡罗仿真方法对某防化装备某系统的维修器材消耗进行了预测。预测结果表明：该方法为准确预测防化装备维修器材消耗量提供了一种较为可行的科学方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 蒙特卡罗法 防化装备 维修器材 消耗 预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010/6/12 0:00:00 |
Chemical Defense Equipment Maintenance Material Consumption Prediction Based on Monte-Carlo Method |
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| ZHANG Liang-hua,GU Jin,WU Ming-fei,TANG Ye-jun,SUN Mu.Chemical Defense Equipment Maintenance Material Consumption Prediction Based on Monte-Carlo Method[J].Ordnance Industry Automation,2010,29(4):54-57. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Liang-hua GU Jin WU Ming-fei TANG Ye-jun SUN Mu |
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| Affiliation: | 1.No.1 Department;Command & Engineering Institute of Chemical Defense;Beijing 102205;China;2.Administrant Brigade of Postgraduate;China |
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| Abstract: | Starting with the analysis main factors of affect the amount of maintenance material,create a prediction model of demand in chemical defense maintenance material,and then use the Monte-Carlo method to predict the consumption of chemical defense maintenance material.The result shows the method provide an accurate and rational method to predict consumption of chemical defense maintenance material. |
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| Keywords: | Monte-Carlo method Chemical defense equipment Maintenance material Consumption Prediction |
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