考虑新用户负荷发展的中短期负荷预测方法

区分新接电用户与老用户负荷增长的不同规律,使中短期负荷预测更符合实际.介绍了考虑新接电用户负荷发展的中短期负荷预测方法的基本思路,数学模型及负荷预测表达式,新接电用户需用系数计算方法.通过地区中短期负荷预测实例的结果分析,建议了准确度最高的负荷预测公式,并证明该预测方法较原有的方法明显提高了负荷预测的精确程度.

A Medium and Short Term Load Forecasting Method Considering Development of New Customer Load

Distinguishing the different increasing rule of new customer load and old customer load makes medium and short term load forecasting correspond to reality.The basic idea considering the development of new customer load in medium and short term load forecasting,as well as the mathematical model,load forecasting expression and the calculation of demand factor for new customer are introduced.The most accurate load forecasting formula is suggested through analyzing region medium and short term load forecast case. Ultimately,the practical case verifies such method can advance the accuracy of the load forecasting compared with original method.