A Methodology for Modeling and Optimizing Social Systems |
| |
| Authors: | Antonio Caselles David Soler Maria T. Sanz Joan C. Micó |
| |
| Affiliation: | 1. Departamento de Matemática Aplicada, Universidad de Valencia, Valencia, Spain;2. antonio.caselles@uv.es;4. Institut Universitari de Matemàtica Multidisciplinar, Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, Spain;5. Departamento de Didáctica de las Matemáticas, Universidad de Valencia, Valencia, Spain |
| |
| Abstract: | AbstractA system methodology for modeling and optimizing social systems is presented. It allows constructing dynamical models formulated stochastically, i.e., their results are given by confidence intervals. The models provide optimal intervention ways to reach the stated objectives. Two optimization methods are used: (1) to test strategies and scenarios and (2) to optimize with a genetic algorithm. The application case presented is a small nonformal education Spanish business. First, the model is validated in the 2008–2012 period, and subsequently, the optimal way to obtain a maximum profit in the 2013–2025 period is obtained using the two methods. |
| |
| Keywords: | Economical model genetic algorithm sensitivity analysis simulation social systems stochastic model strategies and scenarios |
|
|
