Multi-step-ahead forecasting of daily solar radiation components in the Saharan climate

ABSTRACT

Accurate estimation of renewable energy sources plays an important role in their integration into the grid. An unexpected atmospheric change can produce a range of problems related to various solar plant components affecting the electricity generation system. Global solar radiation (GSR) assessment has been increased in the past decade due to its important use in photovoltaic application. In this paper, we propose the use of machine learning-based models for daily global and direct solar radiation forecasting in a semi-arid climate, using a combination set of meteorological parameters on a horizontal surface in the Ghardaïa region. The models are presented and implemented on 3-year measured meteorological data at Applied Research Unit for Renewable Energies (URAER) at Ghardaïa city between 2014 and 2016. The results show that both MLP and RBF models perform well for three-step-ahead forecasting with a slight improvement in MLP models in terms of statistical metrics.