基于风险与声发射检测数据分析的储罐底板腐蚀剩余寿命预测方法研究

基于振幅分布理论、统计理论，引入风险概念，综合分析储罐底板腐蚀的声发射检测和漏磁检测数据，得到基于漏磁检测数据的声发射参量对储罐底板腐蚀的量化方法。通过对10台样本储罐的分析，得到某一地区介质为原油的一类储罐的声发射典型参量对储罐底板腐蚀的量化关系，即声发射活度与风险腐蚀速率（CRP）的关系为Y=13514．65x，该模型的评价准确率为9022％。建立实际腐蚀速率（CTP）与CRP的关系模型，为Z=12．14x，得到CRP的12倍约为储罐底板腐蚀最严重部位的腐蚀速率的结论。这样对待评估储罐进行声发射检测，利用声发射量化评价模型，可得到CRP，进而得到管理腐蚀速率（CMP），参照API653-2009，可对储罐底板的剩余寿命进行预测。

Remaining Life Prediction Method Research of Tank Bottom Corrosion Based on Risk and Acoustic Emission Testing Data Analysis

Basing on smplitude distribution themy, the statistical themy, bringing in risk concept, the acoustic emission testing and magnetic flux leakage testing data of tank bottom corrosion were comprehen- sively analysed, and then the quantification method of the acoustic emission parameter based on the testing data of＂ the magnetic flux leakage which was about tank bottom corrosion was got. By the analysis of＂ 10 tanks which are in a region and the medium are crude oil, the acoustic emission typical parameters for tank bottom eon＇osion quantitative relationship was obtained, the relationship of＂ acoustic emission activity and risk eon＇osion rate CRP is y = 13514.65x,and the evaluation accuracy of＂ the model is 90.22%. The relationship model of true corrosion pace CTP and risk eon＇osion pace CRP has been established,which is z = 12. 14x,the conclusion that the 12 times of＂ the CRP is about the worst part of＂ the tank bottom corro- sion rate was obtained. Testing the tanks which need evaluate with acoustic emission, using the evaluation model,CRP can be got and then management eon＇osion rate of CMP can be got, according to API 653 2009 ,the remaining life of tank bottom can be predicted.