Determination of System Performance by the Generation of Conditional System Moments

A case study is used to illustrate that Monte Carlo simulation is not always the best method of determining system performance. The advantages cited by Hahn and Shapiro 2] of the moment generating method are emphasized in this study, particularly that associated with reduced computer time requirements. The study also illustrates that a modification of the moment approach may be required to permit valid approximation of the distribution using a Pearson curve. The modification in question involves the use of conditional moments.