| 高关水库降雨序列R/S分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡小梅,贺天忠,陈湘海,陈向东.高关水库降雨序列R/S分析[J].湖北水力发电,2014(1):53-55,61. |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡小梅 贺天忠 陈湘海 陈向东 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]湖北省漳河工程管理局,湖北荆门448156 [2]湖北省高关水库管理局,湖北荆门431806 |
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| 摘 要： | 依据高关水库1971-2011年降雨资料,利用R/S法对其未来变化趋势进行了分析,结果表明:①流域未来降雨量可能呈现持续增加的趋势;②1995年为流域降雨量系列的突变点,对前后两个序列的特征值进行统计分析,均具有明显的差异,已经不符合"一致性"的要求;③流域人类活动日趋频繁,使得流域下垫面条件发生了较大的变化,对水库入库径流量变化有较大的影响。
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| 关 键 词： | R/S分析 降雨量 变化趋势 高关水库 |
R/S Analysis on Rainfall series of Gaoguan Reservoir |
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| HU Xiaomei,HE Tianzhong,CHEN Xianghai,CHEN Xiangdong.R/S Analysis on Rainfall series of Gaoguan Reservoir[J].Hubei Water Power,2014(1):53-55,61. |
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| Authors: | HU Xiaomei HE Tianzhong CHEN Xianghai CHEN Xiangdong |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Hubei Zhanghe Project Management Bureau, Jingmen 448156, China; 2. Hubei Gaoguan Reservoir Managment Bureau, Jingmen 431806, China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the rainfall data of Gaoguan Reservoir from 1971 to 2011, the future trend were analyzed by apply- ing R/S method. The results showed that basin future rainfall may be increased continuously; rainfall series in 1995 was a mutation and the two sequences of eigenvalue before and after 1995 had significantly different by means of statistical a- nalysis, which does not meet the requirements of the ＂consistency＂; the basin underlying surface conditions have been affected greatly due to the frequent human activity, which had an effect on reservoir inflow runoff. |
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| Keywords: | R/S analysis rainfall variation trend Gaoguan reservoir |
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