一种确定压裂选井原则的简单方法

在油田开发中，经济效益始终被经营者放在首位，由于油井压裂的费用相对较高，所以在措施前需进行产量预测。根据压裂的措施投入、原油生产经营费用和压裂后的累计增油量确定了压裂措施边际成本，将油井压裂后的边际成本与当前市场原油价格相比，以不亏本为前提条件，得出油井压裂后以累计增油量为因变量的盈亏分析模型，由模型计算出边际成本等于国际市场原油价格时的临界累计产量；根据油田特定区域已压裂井的生产数据，利用数理统计分析理论，在压裂工艺等参数不变的条件下，用油田常用的参数（地层压力和油层改造厚度），可以确定在该区域油井压裂后累计增油量预测公式，由该公式预测出油井压裂后累计增油量，把预测累计产量大于临界累计产量作为现场压裂的选井原则。参２（郭海莉摘

A simple method to select the target well for hydraulic fracturing.

Economic benefit is always set at the first place by managers in oil field development. Due to the relatively high cost in fracturing job, gain and loss analysis based on a prediction of production rate change after fracturing should be made before any fracturing job taken. Based on an investment in the fracturing job, production cost and cumulative production increase after fracturing, a marginal cost for each fracturing job is estimated comparing this marginal cost with current oil cost, under no loss condition, a gain and loss analysis model can be established. From the marginal cost calculated by this model a critical cumulation production rate when the oil cost is equal to the international market oil cost is estimated. Based on the production data out a fracture job. by means of mathematical statistics theory with constant fracturing technological parameters, a formula to predict cumulative production rate of every fracturing well in this region can be deducted with conventional oil field parameters (formation pressure and the thickness of affected pay zone). The cumulative production increase estimated by this formula compared with marginal cumulative production will give a principle of selecting a well as target to carry