光伏电站理论发电功率的优化计算模型与方法

光伏电站理论发电功率计算结果的准确性直接影响弃光电量的统计，对电网调度及光伏发展规划影响重大。理论发电功率的传统计算方法有样板逆变器法和气象数据外推法，当样板逆变器的出力受到限制时，样板逆变器法计算结果不准确，而气象数据外推法参数众多且难以确定。针对上述问题，提出了一种光伏电站理论发电功率优化计算方法。首先，介绍了样板逆变器法和气象数据外推法的计算原理，并分析了两种方法的特点和不足。然后，基于光伏电站历史出力及气象信息，提出了改进样板逆变器法和改进气象数据外推法。在实际应用中，当弃光未发生或者在弃光初始阶段采用计算精度更高的改进样板逆变器法开展计算，当样板逆变器出力受到限制时，切换至改进气象数据外推法进行求解。最后，对国内某光伏电站在不同气象条件下开展仿真计算，验证了所提方法的合理性和有效性。

Optimization calculation models and methods for the theoretical power of a photovoltaic power station

The accuracy of a theoretical power calculation result for a photovoltaic power station affects the statistics of the curtailment electricity directly, and has a significant impact on power grid dispatching and photovoltaic development planning. The traditional calculation methods for generation power include the template inverter and meteorological data extrapolation methods. When the output of the template inverter is restricted, the template inverter method is inaccurate, and the parameters of the meteorological extrapolation method are numerous and difficult to determine. To solve the above problems, an optimization calculation method is proposed. First, the calculation principles of the template inverter and the meteorological data extrapolation methods are introduced, and the characteristics and shortcomings of the two methods are analyzed. Then, improved template inverter and improved meteorological data extrapolation methods are proposed based on the historical output of a photovoltaic power station and the meteorological information. In practical application, when there is no photovoltaic curtailment or the photovoltaic curtailment is in the initial stage, the improved template inverter method with higher calculation accuracy is used for calculation; when the output of the template inverter is restricted, the improved meteorological data extrapolation method is used. Finally, the simulation results for a domestic photovoltaic power station in different meteorological conditions verify the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed method.