| 公司财务困境的非参数生存分析模型评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 邓晓岚,陈朝晖,王宗军.公司财务困境的非参数生存分析模型评价[J].武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版),2007,29(6):121-124. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邓晓岚 陈朝晖 王宗军 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 福州大学,管理学院,福建,福州,350002
2. 华中科技大学,管理学院,湖北,武汉,430074 |
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| 摘 要： | 国内至今没有学者从时间的维度描述过中国上市公司财务困境风险的动态变化过程。运用非参数生存分析方法，对中国上市公司随公司年龄而变化的财务困境风险进行了评价；运用Kaplan-Meier法估计公司财务困境状态的生存曲线与风险率曲线，并对制造业等6个行业的财务困境风险状态的生存率曲线进行了比较与分析，以对上市公司财务困境发生的危险期形成一个总体的认识。
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| 关 键 词： | 财务困境 非参数生存分析 Kaplan-Meier法 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-144X（2007）06-0121-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-12-25 |
Evaluation of the Financial Distress Using Model of Nonparametric Survival Analysis |
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| DENG Xiaolan,CHEN Zhaohui,WANG Zongjun.Evaluation of the Financial Distress Using Model of Nonparametric Survival Analysis[J].Journal of Wuhan University of Technology(Information & Management Engineering),2007,29(6):121-124. |
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| Authors: | DENG Xiaolan CHEN Zhaohui WANG Zongjun |
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| Abstract: | The dynamic process of financial distress risk in Chinese listed companies is hardly studied from the perspective of time.The financial distress risk of Chinese listed companies over company age is evaluated by nonparametric survival analysis.With a sample of 185 financially distressed companies in China which suffer "financial situation abnormality" and their matching companies,the survival curve and hazard curve for the financial distress status is estimated by using Kaplan-Meier method.Furthermore,the survival curves of financial distress risk among six main industries are compared and analyzed.The comparison is helpful for an overall understanding of the likely time of financial distress risk for Chinese listed companies. |
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| Keywords: | financial distress nonparametric survival analysis Kaplan - Meier method |
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