气平衡抽油机系统可靠性分析的数字仿真

通过对气平衡抽油机失效工况分析，建立起气平衡抽油机系统的故障树，采用蒙特卡洛仿真方法，对系统各基本部件的失效时间进行随机抽样，并以故障树的逻辑关系为依据，判断各基本部件失效对系统失效的影响，经20000次仿真计算，仿真结果的绝对误差小于0．5％，统计得出气平衡抽油机系统平均无故障工作时间为3782．92h，并且给出系统累计失效概率分布曲线、系统可靠度曲线和系统失效概率分布曲线。对基本部件重要度和模式重要度的统计分析表明，平衡气缸是系统的最薄弱环节。

Digital simulation for system reliability analysis of air balanced pumping unit

Through an analysis of the failure of an air balanced pumpig unit system , a fault tree of the system is set up. By using the Monte Caro method, the samples of every basic element of the system are randomly taken and according to the logical relation of the fault tree, the influence of the failure of every basic element on the failure of the system is judged.By 20000 times of simulating calculation with an absolute error of less than 0.5%, it is concluded that the mean faultfree working time of the system is 3782.92h, and the accumulative failure probability distributing curve, reliabilty curve and failure probalility distributing curve of the system are presented. Statishc analysis of the degree of importance of the basic elements and the mode shows that the cylinder is the weakest part of the system.