电力系统负荷预测方法综述

电力系统负荷预测关系到电力系统的调度运行和生产计划,准确的负荷预测有助于提高系统的安全性和稳定性,能够减少发电成本。随着电力市场的建立和发展,短期负荷预测将发挥越来越重要的作用。文中系统分析了电力系统负荷预测的相关方法,包括传统负荷预测方法、基于人工智能的负荷预测方法、时频分析的动态预测方法以及动态过程描述的负荷预测方法,对各种不同方法的基本原理和优缺点进行了描述。最后,文中认为实用的负荷预测方法应该是结合各种预测模型优点的组合方法。

State of Arts of Load Forecasting in Power System

The load forecasting is an important task of power utilities,which is wildly used in the dispatching and operation planning of power systems,and the accurate load forecasting is helpful to the security and stability of power systems as well as to reducing the power generation costs. With the establishment and development of the power market,short-time load forecasting will play more and more important role in power systems. This paper systematically analyses relative methods of predicting loads in power sys...