| 电力系统短期负荷预测方法综述 |
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| 引用本文： | 廖旎焕,胡智宏,马莹莹,卢王允.电力系统短期负荷预测方法综述[J].电力系统保护与控制,2011,39(1):147-152. |
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| 作者姓名： | 廖旎焕 胡智宏 马莹莹 卢王允 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 华北水利水电学院电力学院，河南 郑州 450010;2. 郑州轻工业学院电气信息工程学院，河南 郑州 450002;3. 山东省建设高压容器有限公司，山东 济南 250101;4. 周口市供电公司，河南 周口 466000 |
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| 摘 要： | 简述了短期负荷预测的概念和意义，分析了短期负荷预测的特点和影响预测精度的各种因素，将目前的预测方法分为经典方法、传统方法、智能方法和预测新方法。综合分析了目前各种预测方法的应用原理，详细分析和比较了各个预测方法的优点和不足之处。提出提高短期负荷预测的精度不仅重视历史数据的积累，更应注重选择合适的预测模型，综合预测模型是未来电力负荷预测方法的发展方向。
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| 关 键 词： | 电力系统 短期负荷预测 能量管理系统 专家系统 混沌理论 |
Review of the short-term load forecasting methods of electric power system |
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| LIAO Ni-huan,HU Zhi-hong ,MA Ying-ying,LU Wang-yun.Review of the short-term load forecasting methods of electric power system[J].Power System Protection and Control,2011,39(1):147-152. |
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| Authors: | LIAO Ni-huan HU Zhi-hong MA Ying-ying LU Wang-yun |
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| Affiliation: | LIAO Ni-huan1,HU Zhi-hong 2,MA Ying-ying3,LU Wang-yun4(1.College of Electric Power,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450010,China,2.College of Electric and Information Engineering,Zhengzhou University of Light Industry,Zhengzhou 450002,3.Shandong Province Construction High Pressure Vessel Co.Ltd,Jinan 250101,4.Zhoukou Power Supply Company,Zhoukou 466000,China) |
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| Abstract: | The definition and meaning of short-term load forecasting are introduced.The characteristics and factors affecting the precision of short-term load forecasting of power system are discussed.The current forecasting methods are divided into classical methods,traditional methods,intelligent methods,and new load forecasting methods,the applicable principle of every method is analyzed comprehensively,and the advantages and disadvantages of every method are analyzed and compared in detail.Therefore,to improve the... |
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| Keywords: | electric power system short-term load forecasting energy management system expert system chaos theory |
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