油气钻井核心技术的筛选方法

钻井是石油勘探开发的基本手段，21世纪我国油气钻井面临着许多新的挑战，油气钻井核心技术的筛选对于科学合理地制定我国油气钻井科技发展战略具有重要意义。从我国陆上石油发展战略目标出发，建立了一套较为完善的定性和定量油气钻井核心技术评价指标体系。在专家调查和大量文献资料调研分析的基础上，应用特尔斐法的基本原理，通过定性分析与定量计算相结合，筛选和预测了今后5～10年支撑我国油气钻井科技发展战略的核心技术。对于定量评价指标体系，指标权重的确定采用权值因子判断法，该方法计算简单、实用。该筛选方法克服了单纯定性分析的不足，有利于实现决策的民主化与科学化。

SELECTION METHOD FOR OIL & GAS DRILLING CORE TECHNOLOGY

Oil & gas drilling is faced with many new challenges in 21st century. Selection of oil & gas drilling core Technology is very important to scientifically and reasonably lay down scientific-technical development strategy in oil & gas drilling. Considering the strategy aim of land petroleum development in China, this paper established a qualitative and quantitative evaluation index system for evaluating oil & gas drilling core technology. Based on expert surveys and many literatures, and combined qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation, this paper applied Delphi method to select and predict the oil & gas drilling core technology in about 5-10 years, and introduced the process and steps of selecting oil & gas drilling core technology. For quantitative evaluation index system, weight value of each index is obtained by the weight factor decision method. Its calculation is simple and practicable. This selection method overcame the shortcomings of qualitative method and is beneficial to democratic and scientific decision.