鸭绿江感潮河段洪水预报模型的修正

鸭绿江感潮河段47 km,现有洪水预报模型在大潮预报时有明显的缺陷,问题的主要原因是没有明确体现洪峰到达时间与潮汐两高两低涨落时间的叠加。为此,对高低潮的影响以3 h为一段进行时间离散化处理,确定8个时段内的潮位值,作为附表在模型中进行应用,相对定量地确定了模型L3与L4线间的预报值幅度选择,实例应用预报精度提高到允许误差的10%,预测准确。

Flood Forecasting Model Correction in Tidal Reach of Yalu River

There is 47km-long tidal reach in the Yalu River.The present flood forecasting model is obviously imperfect in forecasting big tide.The main reason of the problem is that it does not clearly reflect the superposition of the reaching time of flood peak and the time of two high and two low of tidal fluctuation.To revise it,the effect of high and low tides is processed discretely at a 3 h interval.The tide levels in eight intervals are obtained and applied in the model,by which the amplitude between lines L3 and L4 is quantitatively determined.The application results show that prediction accuracy is improved to 10% of the allowable error.