流动人口统计归属对城镇化水平的影响

利用第五次和第六次人口普查数据,分析人口流动对于中国城镇化水平的影响,研究发现:不同流动人口统计归属背景下城镇化水平会发生较大的变化,人口流动使得最近两次人口普查的常住人口城镇化水平分别比户籍人口城镇化水平高了4.41和9.59个百分点;流动人口的流入和流出同时抬高了流出地与流入地的城镇化水平,东部地区省份和中西部地区部分省份城镇化水平比实际水平高了10个百分点以上;在剔除了流动人口的影响以后,最近两次人口普查间的城镇化水平提高了7.01个百分点,而不是数据显示的12.18个百分点,流动人口的正确归属使得城镇化水平降低了5.17个百分点;跨省流入人口、省内流动人口和跨省流出人口在不同的省份扮演不同的角色。

IMPACTS OF STATISTICAL BELONGING OF FLOATING POPULATION ON URBANIZATION LEVEL

Using the fifth and sixth national census data, this paper analyses the effects of floating population on urbanization level. The paper finds that the urbanization level changes greatly under the statistical belonging of floating population background. Due to the population flowing, the urbanization level of permanent residents is higher by 4.41 percentage points and 9.59 percentage points than the urbanization level of population with permanent residence register according to the two censuses. Urbanization level of outflow and inflow provinces are raised at the same time because of floating population's inflow and outflow, and the urbanization level of provinces in East China and some provinces in Central and West China is higher by 10 percentage points than the actual level; after eliminating the influence of the floating population, the urbanization level increases by 7.01 percentage points between the recent two population censuses,not 12.18 percentage points as the data shows. The urbanization level shrinks by 5.17 percentage points after the correct statistical attribution of floating population. The cross-provinces inflow population, the inter-province floating population, and the cross-provinces outflow population play different roles in different provinces.