上海城市地下空间规模需求预测的实证研究

城市地下空间开发利用规模的需求预测是城市规划与地下空间利用中的难点和热点。本文在上海城市地下空间2006年和2008年两次普查数据的基础上,应用Stata、SPSS、Arc GIS等工具,以空间回归模型为经典模型进行地下空间规模需求预测的实证研究,发现:上海城市地下空间开发利用规模受到经济社会宏观发展指标的影响,与人口密度、人均GDP显著正相关,与房地产价格不相关;上海城市地下空间开发利用规模在中心城区与外围郊区表现出明显不同的特征;上海城市地下空间开发利用处于"快速提升"阶段,未来一段时间仍将保持高速增长。通过本研究,可以更加深入地了解上海城市地下空间的发展规律,深刻把握预测城市地下空间需求规模的模型方法,为上海市及其他城市地下空间的发展提供理论分析工具。

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY ON FORECASTING THE CAPACITY DEMAND OF UNDERGROUND SPACE IN SHANGHAI

Forecasting the capacity demand of underground space is the di?culty and a heat point in urban planning and urban underground space development. Through the survey data of Shanghai underground space capacity in 2006 and 2008, this paper conducts an empirical study on forecasting the capacity demand of underground space using the spatial regression model as the classical model by applying tools of STATA, SPSS and ArcGIS. The study indicates that the scale of underground space development and use is in a significant positive relationship with the population density and GDP per capita, but is not relevant with the price of real estate. The characteristics are apparently different in the underground space development and use in Shanghai between the central and the rural area. The underground space development in Shanghai is at the stage of "rapid promotion," and will keep increasing at a high speed. The paper reveals the development law of Shanghai underground space development and the method of forecasting the capacity of underground space so as to provide theoretical analysis tool for development of underground space in Shanghai and other cities.