判别分析法在中小型滑坡稳定性评估中的应用

中小型滑坡灾害点多面广、规模小危害大,主要分布在广大农村和小城镇,其预测预报主要依靠群测群防体系,急需一种简单实用的定性评估方法。针对这种情况,将一种基于历史资料的统计分析方法引入滑坡体稳定性的评价中,该方法实质是一种工程类比法,适用于成灾机理还不太明确的中小型滑坡灾害。论文对该方法的原理进行了介绍,结合中小型滑坡灾害稳定状态评估,建立了评估模型。以重庆市奉节滑坡灾害隐患点资料为训练样本,建立了该区域中小型滑坡稳定状态的判别函数,可对该区域未知稳定状态的滑坡点稳定性进行评价。通过验证,发现该方法正确率86%左右,是一种比较可靠的定性评估方法,且简单易行,便于在群测群防体系中推广使用。

Application of Classification Method in Stability Assessment of Small and Medium Landslides

Small and medium landslides are widely distributed and their prediction is mainly relied on group monitoring and controlling systems.This paper illustrates a method for small and medium potential landslide stability assessment based on classification method.Firstly,based on historical data to analyze the influential factors of landslide;secondly,taking stability as a multi-dimensional statistical variable,a one-dimensional straight line is projected,and then using distance discriminate method a criterion is...