A novel approach for development of a multivariate calibration model using a Doehlert experimental design: Application for prediction of key gasoline properties by Near-infrared Spectroscopy

Alternative methods for quality control in the petroleum industry have been obtained using Near-infrared Spectroscopy (NIRS) combined with multivariate techniques such as PLS (Partial Least-Square). The process of development and refinement of PLS models usually follows a nonsystematic and univariate procedure. The Standard Error of Cross Validation (SECV), the Standard Error of Prediction (SEP) and the determination coefficient (r²_regr.) are usually the only guides used in pursuit of the best model. In the present work, a novel approach was proposed using a Doehlert experimental design with three input variables (wavenumber range, preprocessing technique and regression/validation technique) varied at 5, 7 and 3 levels, respectively. Besides SECV, SEP and r²_regr., some additional response variables, such as the slope, r² and p_value from the external validation, as well as the number of PLS factors, were simultaneously assessed to find the optimum conditions for PLS modeling. The optimum setting for each input variable was simultaneously defined through a multivariate approach using a desirability function. With the proposed approach, the main and interaction effects could also be investigated. The methodology was successfully applied to obtain PLS models to monitor the gasoline quality through the process of product loading in trucks. To prevent product contamination or adulteration, fast prediction of key properties was obtained from FT-NIR spectra within the 7300-3900 cm^− 1 region with SECV in the range 0.04-0.63% w/w for composition (Aromatics, Saturates, Olefins and Benzene) and 0.0008 for Relative Density 20/4 °C. Each optimized PLS model was obtained with less than 40 modeling runs, demonstrating the efficiency of the proposed approach.