隧道总体风险评价的改进模糊评判方法

本文提出了一种改进的模糊评判方法,并将其应用于隧道总体风险评价。在建立了多层次隧道总体风险评价指标体系基础上,提出了采用数组形式进行的权重和隶属度的模糊评判规则,依据简单多数原则分别计算权重和隶属度的模糊评判效度,并计入模糊评判效度对风险评价结果的影响,分别采用简单及格原则和梯形隶属度函数将权重及隶属度去模糊化,并利用扩展指标求均值的方法对总指标隶属度进行修正。某实际隧道工程算例表明,传统的隧道风险模糊综合评价结果有时会低估隧道施工和管理中存在的风险,因而,将所提方法和已有方法相结合进行风险评价可以更充分地反映风险,为采用降低风险的相应措施提供了有效的理论依据。

Improved Fuzzy Assessment Method of Total Risk for Tunnel Engineering

A new risk fuzzy evaluation method of tunnel projects based on expert inquiry is presented in this paper. On the basis of establishing a multi-level tunnel risk assessment system, a scoring rule is proposed by using a form of three-dimensional value to judge the weight and membership grade of the risk evaluation index. And then, the validity weights of each expert’s judgment for both the evaluation index importance judgment and the membership grade fuzzy evaluation are calculated separately by the plurality principle. After that, the results of fuzzy evaluation of index’s weights are de-fuzzed using the simple pass principle. At last, the membership grades of the general index are revised by the averaging extended index method. An example of a real tunnel project shows that the traditional risk fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method might underestimate the risk degree of tunnel construction and management. Therefore it is suggested to combine the proposed method with the traditional method to investigate the real risk situations more adequately, and this suggestion is expected to be an effective theoretical basis for adopting some appropriate measures to reduce the exist risks.