基于B-S分布的智能电能表寿命预计方法研究

针对目前智能电能表寿命预计普遍采用Weibull分布的情况，文中介绍了概率物理方法中一个重要的失效模型：B-S疲劳寿命分布及其可靠性分析，并推导出两参数B-S分布的极大似然估计值及近似区间。B-S分布适合描述失效产品的寿命规律，主要应用于疲劳失效以及电子产品性能退化失效的分析研究。文中将两参数B-S分布引入智能电能表寿命预计，对寿命数据是否来自两参数B-S分布总体的样本进行了拟合检验，采用极大似然法和最小二乘法对两参数B-S分布进行了参数估计，建立了基于B-S分布的寿命预计方法，通过实际算例验证了B-S分布寿命预计方法的实用性。文中研究内容对于电能表寿命预计、轮换周期的确定提供了一种新方法，同时对于电能表可靠性评价提供了新思路。

Research on life prediction method of intelligent watt hour meter based on B-S distribution

In view of the current situation that Weibull distribution is widely used in the life prediction of intelligent electric energy meters, this paper introduces an important failure model in probabilistic physics method: B-S fatigue life distribution and its reliability analysis, and deduces the maximum likelihood estimation value and approximate interval of two parameter B-S distribution. B-S distribution is suitable for describing the life law of failed products. It is mainly used in the analysis and research of fatigue failure and performance degradation failure of electronic products. In this paper, the two parameter B-S distribution is introduced into the life prediction of intelligent electric energy meter for the first time. The parameters of the two parameter B-S distribution are estimated by using the maximum likelihood method and the least square method, and the life prediction method based on the B-S distribution is established. The practicability of the B-S distribution life prediction method is verified by a practical example. The research content of this paper provides a new method for the life prediction and rotation cycle of electric energy meter, and provides a new idea for the reliability evaluation of electric energy meter.