光伏发电影响因素分析和短期光伏出力预测研究

近几年，在国家政策大力扶持下，光伏产业作为战略性新兴产业,得到了井喷式的发展。光伏发电现状和发电预测日益成为大家关注的焦点。根据浙江省绍兴地区 2017年以来光伏用户的发电量数据，从季节、天气、温度、光照等不同因素对光伏发电效率影响进行了分析，并提出了一种短期光伏发电出力和发电量测算的方法，从而为本地区分布式光伏发电量预测、光伏工程选址、光伏运维管理提供依据。

Analysis of influencing factors of photovoltaic power generation and study on short-term photovoltaic output prediction

In recent years, with the vigorous support of national policies, photovoltaic industry as a strategic emerging industry has been greatly developed. The current situation of photovoltaic power generation and power generation forecasting have increasingly become the focus of research. Based on the photovoltaic power generation data of Shaoxing area in Zhejiang Province since 2017, the influence of different factors such as season, weather,temperature and light on photovoltaic power generation efficiency is analyzed. A method of short-term photovoltaic power generation and power generation measurement is proposed, which provides a basis for local distributed photovoltaic power generation forecasting, photovoltaic project location, photovoltaic operation and maintenance management.