基于CEEMD-RSVPSO-KELM的用户侧微电网短期负荷预测

用户侧微电网负荷随机性强,短期负荷的预测精度对微电网的正常运行起着重要作用。提出了一种基于互补集成经验模态分解(CEEMD)和区域划分自适应变异粒子群(RSVPSO)算法优化核极限学习机(KELM)的负荷预测模型。采用互补集成经验模态分解将负荷序列分解为多组平稳的子序列,以减小不同局部信息之间的相互影响。针对粒子群算法易早熟和收敛速度慢的问题,利用区域划分来实现惯性权重和学习因子的自适应调整,提高粒子的全局寻优能力和搜索效率,并结合自适应变异操作避免陷入局部最优,加强核极限学习机预测精度。最后通过案例验证,所提模型的预测准确率约为98.114%,较其他预测模型具有更好的预测效果和实际应用意义。

Short-term load forecasting for microgrid based on CEEMD-RSVPSO-KELM model

Prediction accuracy of short-term load is critical to the normal operation of the microgrid due to the strong randomness of load. A kernel extreme learning machine (KELM) prediction model based on complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) and regional-division self-adapting variation particle swarm optimization (RSVPSO) is proposed. The load sequence is decomposed into several smooth subsequences by using complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition to reduce the mutual influences among different local information. Aiming at the problem that particle swarm optimization is easy to fall into local optimization and is slow in converge, a inertial weight and learning factor based on regional-division are utilized to improve the global search ability and search efficiency, further, adaptive variation operation is introduced to avoid the population falling into local optimum. The prediction accuracy of kernel extreme learning machine is obviously improved. Finally, the model proposed in this paper can obtain good performance of accuracy about 98.114%, which has better prediction effect and practical application significance than other prediction models.