水锁损害定量预测研究

通过分析确定了影响低渗特低渗砂岩储层水锁损害的主要因素为岩心渗透率、岩心孔隙度和储层孔喉半径。在室内实验数据的基础上，先采取判别分析的方法对预测样本的水锁损害程度进行分类预测，然后再利用逐步回归方法对每一类的样本进行定量预测，建立水锁损害定量预测模型。利用判别分析方法建立的水锁损害类型预测模型，经过大庆、吐哈、江苏及二连油田28个样本的检验，其对水锁损害类型的判断准确率在85％以上。在判别分析基础上，利用回归分析方法建立的水锁损害定量预测模型，通过大庆油田7个样本的检验，预测误差均小于10％，平均误差为2．27％，预测模型达到了快速准确预测的目的。

Quantitative prediction of water blocking damage

Factors that influencing the water blocking damage in low permeable and ultra-low permeable reservoirs are core permeability, core porosity and throat radius. Based on the laboratory testing data, judgment and analysis are applied for the sorted prediction of water blocking damage of the samples, and then quantitatively predict each sort of samples by successive regression, so as to establish a quantitative predicting model. This model is used for testing 28 samples in Daqing, Tuha, Jiangsu and Erlian, and its accuracy rate is over 85%. The model established on regression analysis is used for testing 7 samples in Daqing, and it prediction errors are all lower than 10%, and average error is 2. 27%, which meet the goal of fast and accurate prediction.