考虑电力市场交易影响的中长期负荷预测方法

市场化改革重构电力行业格局,放开发电计划和售电市场,其引发的自主市场行为比统购统销模式下的发用电行为更加难以捕捉和预测,电网规划面临挑战。为适应新的形势,有必要积极调整电网规划思路,探索创新负荷预测方法。文章从负荷预测的两个方面入手提出改进方法,第一是在中长期负荷预测中考虑加入电价响应的因素;第二是基于负荷分布、电源规划和市场参与者报价的预测结果来模拟市场交易,从而捕捉远期电力市场的分区电力平衡和交易价格水平,反过来修正负荷预测结果。该方法充分考虑了中长期负荷对交易价格的弹性响应,对电力市场环境下的电网发展规划有一定参考价值。

Long Term Load Forecasting Method Considering the Influence of the Power Market Transaction

The pattern of the power industry will be restructured in the market reforms,and the power generation plan and the sale market would be opened to every market participants.In this mode,the power generation and consumption behavior will be more difficult to capture and predict than in the environment of monopolistic buying and selling model.Power grid planning is going to be challenged.In order to adapt to the new situation,it is necessary to actively adjust the power grid planning thoughts,and explore some innovative load forecasting methods.The improvement method of load forecasting is put forward from two aspects.Firstly,the price response factor is added into the long term load forecasting method.Secondly,the market transactions are simulated based on the forecasting results of load distribution,power supply planning and marginal price,thus the power balance and transaction price level of the long term power market can be captured,and then,the trading results can conversely correct the load forecasting results.Shown as the case study,the method takes full account of the elastic response of market participants to the transaction price,and brings a certain reference value to the power grid development planning in the power market environment.