基于改进灰色预测与熵权融合体系的变压器寿命预测研究

文中提出了一种基于熵权融合体系与改进灰色预测理论的变压器寿命预测模型。该模型采用的健康指标体系基于熵权法对变压器层次分析和可靠性指标两个方面进行了融合,并充分考虑运行环境、负荷情况与故障缺陷等相关因素,提出了适应于运行实际的健康指数修正因子,提高了变压器健康状况评估的全面性及客观性。通过实例验证表明,模型预测结果合理有效,能够对变压器寿命预测和检修决策工作的开展提供指导与建议。

Transformer life prediction model based on the improved grey forecasting and entropy method

This paper proposes a transformer life prediction model based on the improved grey forecasting and entropy weight fusion system.The health index system of the model takes advantage of both hierarchical analysis system and reliability index system,which could overcome the limits of each system.Considering the transformer-life-related factors,such as operating environment,load rate and fault or defects,the model puts forward several modifying factors of health index,which can greatly improve the assessment ability of comprehensibility and objectivity in transformer health situation.The efficiency of the model is successfully verified by examples,and the model can provide useful guidance and suggestion in the decision-making work and has a great potential in the application of transformer life prediction.