| Abstract: | Models that link ecological responses to hydrologic changes are important for assessing the effects of flow regulation on aquatic and riparian ecosystems. Based on the Recruitment Box Model, a graphical model used to prescribe environmental flows for cottonwood (Populus spp.) recruitment, we designed a simulation model to represent the influence of river flow dynamics on seedling recruitment of riparian pioneer woody plants. The model simulates the influence of temporal patterns of river stage on dispersal, germination, initial recruitment and over‐winter survival of first‐year seedlings of riparian pioneer shrubs and trees. We used the model to simulate seedling recruitment patterns for five species (Acer saccharinum, Betula nigra, Populus deltoides, Salix nigra and Salix exigua) on the Wisconsin River (Wisconsin, USA) under three flow scenarios: historic (1935–2002), simulated natural (1915–1975) and simulated regulated flows (1915–1975). Simulation results agreed well with field‐observed relative differences among years (1997–2000) in seedling densities for the five focal species. Simulated successful recruitment years were highly synchronous among species, but species differed in their sensitivity to flows at different times during the growing season, consistent with among‐species differences in seed dispersal timing. Comparison of simulated natural and regulated flows for 1915–1975 showed that flow regulation decreased monthly flow variability, increased late summer to winter baseflow and reduced the magnitude of spring peaks. Simulated recruitment and over‐winter survival of tree seedlings of all species was enhanced under the regulated flow scenario, likely due to increased summer baseflow and reductions in peak flood magnitude. Our analyses show the utility of extending the Recruitment Box Model to include multiple species of riparian shrubs and trees, and the effects of post‐colonization flows on their recruitment success. However, some key functional relationships between flow patterns and woody seedling demography (e.g. shear stress thresholds for seedling mortality) have not been adequately quantified and merit further study. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
