黄河流域地级市水-能源-粮食系统耦合及空间关联研究

黄河流域水资源匮乏，但肩负国家能源和粮食生产的重任。在资源有限、需求不断扩张的背景下，探究水-能源-粮食资源的空间错配给黄河流域可持续发展带来的压力和挑战，可为流域高质量发展及国家区域协调发展战略提供科学依据和参考。基于中观尺度，构建黄河流域地级市水-能源-粮食系统综合评价框架，分析了流域内各地级市的水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调发展水平及空间关联特征。结果表明：2000-2018年，流域内各地级市的水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调度整体由初级协调阶段过度到中级协调阶段，但协调发展稳定性不足，至2018年，系统耦合协调度呈现下降态势；多数年份系统耦合协调度表现出显著的空间关联特征。从地级市视角出发对水-能源-粮食系统进行研究更具地区针对性，更易凸显中观尺度下系统发展的个性特征。应进一步探究黄河流域水-能源-粮食系统的空间关联影响机制，并解构黄河流域水-能源-粮食系统动态耦合协调发展模式。

Coupling and spatial correlation of water-energy-food system of prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River Basin bears the heavy responsibility of national energy and food production with scarce water resources. Under the background of limited resources yet ever-expanding demand, we explored the pressure and challenges faced by the sustainable development of the Yellow River Basin, which are brought upon by the spatial mismatch of water-energy-food resources, in the hope of providing a scientific basis and reference for the high-quality development of the basin, as well as the national and regional coordinated development strategy. Based on the mesoscale perspective, the comprehensive evaluation framework of water-energy-food system in the prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin is constructed to analyze the coupling and coordinated development level and spatial correlation characteristics of water-energy-food system in prefecture level cities in the Yellow River Basin. The results show that from 2000 to 2018, the coupling coordination degree of water-energy-food system of the prefecture-level cities in the basin evolved from primary coordination to intermediate coordination, but the coordinated development was insufficiently unstable. By 2018, the degree of system coupling and coordination showed a downward trend. In most years, the system coupling coordination degree showed significant spatial correlation characteristics. From the perspective of the prefecture-level cities, the research on water-energy-food system is more regionally targeted, and it is easier to highlight the individual characteristics of system development at the mesoscale. Further study should be conducted on the influencing mechanism of the spatial correlation of water-energy-food system, and the deconstruction of the dynamic coupling and coordinated development mode of this system in the Yellow River Basin.