| 采用时间序列预测风电场出力 |
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| 引用本文： | 连文莉,黄成辰,吕昌霖. 采用时间序列预测风电场出力[J]. 电网与水力发电进展, 2011, 27(12): 112-117 |
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| 作者姓名： | 连文莉 黄成辰 吕昌霖 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 陕西省电力公司,陕西西安,710048
2. 西安交通大学电气工程学院,陕西西安,710049 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于时间序列的方法,采用自回归滑动平均(ARMA)模型进行短期风速预测;考虑风力发电机组排列布置时尾流效应的影响、风电场址地面粗糙程度、空气密度、风向变化以及不同型号风机功率特性的差异等因素,采用Jasen尾流模型建立了大型风电场的综合模型。结果表明,合理的风电场布置方案有利于减小尾流效应的影响,从而提高风电场出力。
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| 关 键 词： | 时间序列 风速预测 尾流效应 风电场出力 |
Wind Power Output Prediction Based on Time Series |
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| LIAN Wen-li,HUANG Cheng-chen and Lv Chang-lin. Wind Power Output Prediction Based on Time Series[J]. Advance of Power System & Hydroelectric Engineering, 2011, 27(12): 112-117 |
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| Authors: | LIAN Wen-li HUANG Cheng-chen Lv Chang-lin |
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| Affiliation: | LIAN Wen-li, HUANG Cheng-chen, Lii Chang-lin ( 1. Shaanxi Electric Power Corporation, Xi＇ an 710048, Shaanxi Province, China;2. College of Electrical Engineering, Xi＇ an Jiaotong University, Xi＇ an 710049, Shaanxi Province, China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the time series method, the model ARMA is used to forecast the wind speed in a short term. Considering impacts of wake effects, roughness of the land, air density, wind direction changes and differences of wind turbines in output, the Jensen model is adopted to build the synthetic model of a large wind farm. Results indicate that a better layout of a wind farm helps to reduce the wake effect and improve the output power. |
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| Keywords: | time series method wind speed forecasting wake effect wind farm output |
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