电站设备故障风险评估方法研究

针对电站设备故障风险难以进行定量评估的特点,提出了一种基于层次分析(AHP)的模糊综合评判方法。建立了该方法的数学模型,并且给出了故障风险评估各因素的权重以及计算方法。该方法兼顾了故障风险评价各因素之间具有的模糊性和层次性,并且把主观评估以隶属度和数值范围的形式进行量化,使故障风险评估更具客观性。通过实例计算表明,该方法有效、可行,并且能客观地评估设备故障风险的程度和等级,为电站设备状态维修决策提供依据。

Research on fault risk evaluation method for power plant equipment

Aiming at the problem that it is hard to evaluate the fault risk of the power plant equipment with ration,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on analytic hierarchy process(AHP) was suggested.Then the mathematical model was set up,which included the weight coefficient of each factor concerning the fault risk evaluation and the way of calculation.The fuzziness and the hierarchy about the factors of the fault risk evaluation were both considered in this method,and the subjective factors were quantified with the grade of membership and the scale,which made the fault risk evaluation more objective.The calculating result of applying the proposed method to the example demonstrates that the method is valid and feasible,and it is capable of evaluating the degree and stage of fault risk,which can supply the gist for the condition-based maintenance decision of power plant equipment.