| 基于模糊证据推理的南水北调工程突发事件风险评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 崔玉荣,戴志清,刘喜峰,王博.基于模糊证据推理的南水北调工程突发事件风险评价[J].水力发电,2021(4):102-107. |
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| 作者姓名： | 崔玉荣 戴志清 刘喜峰 王博 |
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| 作者单位： | 华北水利水电大学水利学院;中国能源建设集团有限公司;水资源高效利用与保障工程河南省协同创新中心;河南省水环境模拟与治理重点实验室 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(51709116);中国能源建设股份有限公司工程建设安全保障技术研究重大科技专项(STDC2019-KJZX-01-07);河南省高等学校重点科研项目计划(17B570003)。 |
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| 摘 要： | 突发事件风险因子具有不确定性和模糊性。选取模糊正态分布函数改进了信度结构模型,结合证据推理方法构建了模糊证据推理评价模型,在此基础上,运用不变权重次约束模型对关键风险源进行诊断。以南水北调中线工程为例,构建了五等级风险模糊评价模型,在优选确定南水北调工程突发事件风险指标体系基础上,运用提出的模糊证据推理模型对南水北调中线工程突发事件风险进行评价,并进行了关键风险源诊断,研究结果与实际情况相符。
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| 关 键 词： | 模糊证据推理 突发事件 风险评价 风险源诊断 南水北调工程 |
Risk Assessment of Emergencies in South-to-North Water Diversion Project Based on Fuzzy Evidential Reasoning |
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| CUI Yurong,DAI Zhiqing,LIU Xifeng,WANG Bo.Risk Assessment of Emergencies in South-to-North Water Diversion Project Based on Fuzzy Evidential Reasoning[J].Water Power,2021(4):102-107. |
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| Authors: | CUI Yurong DAI Zhiqing LIU Xifeng WANG Bo |
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| Affiliation: | (School of Water Conservancy,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,Henan,China;China Energy Engineering Group Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100029,China;Collaborative Innovation Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Support Engineering,Zhengzhou 450046,Henan,China;Henan Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation and Treatment,Zhengzhou 450046,Henan,China) |
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| Abstract: | Due to the uncertainty and ambiguity of the risk factors of emergencies,the fuzzy normal distribution function is selected to improve the reliability structure model,and the fuzzy evidential reasoning evaluation model is constructed combining the evidential reasoning method.On this basis,the constant weight order is used in the constraint model to diagnose the key risk sources.Taking the Central Line Project of South-to-North Water Diversion as an example,a five-level risk fuzzy evaluation model is constructed.Based on the optimization and determination of the emergency risk index system of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project,the proposed fuzzy evidential reasoning model is used to evaluate the emergency risk of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project and diagnose the key risk sources.The research results are consistent with the actual situation. |
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| Keywords: | fuzzy evidential reasoning emergencies risk assessment risk source diagnosis South-to-North Water Diversion Project |
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