Assessing the potential of renewable energy sources in Turkey

To meet Turkey’s growing energy demand, the installed electric power capacity of 27.8 GW in 2001 has to be doubled by 2010 and increased fourfold by 2020. The difference between Turkey’s total primary energy supply (TPES) of from its own sources and total final consumption (TFC) is projected grow from 1 quad (1.06–2.06) in 1999 to 5.71 quads (2.79–8.5) in 2020 (1 QUAD=293.071 TWh). Turkey’s limited amount of fossil fuels has a present average ratio of proved reserves of 97.38 quads to production rate of 3.2 quads yr⁻¹ of about 30 years. Turkey’s reliance on fossil fuel-based energy systems to meet the growing demand is most likely to exacerbate the issues of energy insecurity, national environmental degradation, and global climate change in increasing proportions. Economically-feasible renewable energy potential in Turkey is estimated at a total of ca. 1.69 quads yr⁻¹ (495.4 TWh yr⁻¹) with the potential for 0.67 quads yr⁻¹ (196.7 TWh yr⁻¹) of biomass energy, 0.42 quads yr⁻¹ (124 TWh yr⁻¹) of hydropower, 0.35 quads yr⁻¹ (102.3 TWh yr⁻¹) of solar energy, 0.17 quads yr⁻¹ (50 TWh yr⁻¹) of wind energy, and 0.08 quads yr⁻¹ (22.4 TWh yr⁻¹) of geothermal energy. Pursuit and implementation of sustainability-based energy policy could provide about 90 and 35% of Turkey’s total energy supply and consumption projected in 2010, respectively. Utilization of renewable energy technologies for electricity generation would necessitate about 23.2 Mha (29.8%) of Turkey’s land resources.