近100多年来香港和澳门气温时序变化特征及其与ENSO的关联性

基于近 100 多年来的均一化气温数据，从趋势变化、季节差异、突变特征、周期振荡方面诊断香港和澳门的气温变化特征。结果表明: ( 1) 港澳年平均气温和不同季节气温在近 100 多年来均呈显著增加趋势，其中春冬季节增加速率较大，夏秋季节增加速率较小。除秋冬季节外，其它时间上的香港气温增加趋势均大于澳门。港澳夏冬季节气温差异均呈减少趋势。( 2) 香港和澳门年平均气温分别于 1963 年和 1991 年发生突变。在季节上，港澳地区的气温突变均在秋季发生年份最晚，冬季次之，夏季再次之，春季最早。( 3) 香港年平均气温分别存在 3 a、7 a、15 a 和 30 a、60 a 和 120 a 的周期振荡特征。澳门年平均气温存在 3 a、6 a、12 a、24 a 和 48 a 左右的周期振荡特征。( 4) ENSO 与香港年平均气温在 4 a 以下尺度以同位相或提前 1 a 位相变化关系为主，在 4 a 以上尺度以同位相变化关系为主。ENSO 与澳门年平均气温在不同时频域均以同位相变化关系为主。

Characteristics of temperature time series change in Hong Kong and Macao in the past 100 years and their correlation with ENSO

Based on the homogenized temperature data over the past 100 years，the characteristics of temperature change in Hong Kong and Macao are diagnosed in terms of trend change，seasonal difference，abrupt change and periodic oscillation． The results show that: First，the annual mean temperature and the temperature in different seasons in Hong Kong and Macao have shown a significant increase trend in the past 100 years，with a larger increase rate in spring and winter，and a smaller increase rate in summer and autumn． Except for the autumn and winter，the trend of temperature increase in Hong Kong is greater than that in Macao． The temperature difference between Hong Kong and Macao decreased in summer and winter． Second，the annual mean temperature of Hong Kong and Macao changed abruptly in the year of 1963 and 1991，respectively． The year of seasonal temperature change in Hong Kong and Macao was the latest in autumn，followed by winter，summer and spring． Third，there are 3 a， 7 a，15 a，30 a，60 a and 120 a periodic oscillations in the annual mean temperature of Hong Kong． The annual mean temperature in Macao had periodic oscillation characteristics of 3 a，6 a，12 a，24 a and 48 a． Fourth，The relationship between the annual mean temperature of Hong Kong and ENSO was mainly in the same phase variation or one year ahead variation in the scale below 4 years，and in the scale above 4 years in the same phase variation． The relationship between ENSO and Macao annual mean temperature was mainly in the same phase variation in different time and frequency domains．