基于层次分析模型的吉林省雷电灾害风险评估及区划

雷电灾害是十大自然灾害之一,因此针对某一地区进行的雷击灾害风险区划对雷电防护工作有很重要的意义。本文根据吉林省1977~2012年雷暴日数及2002~2012年雷击灾害统计数据,结合吉林省人口密度、城市发展等社会经济特征,选取雷暴日数、雷击灾害频数、生命易损模数及经济易损模数作为雷电灾害风险评估指标,建立风险评估方程、划分风险等级。结果表明:长春市、四平市、通化市、辽源市为雷击灾害强风险区;松原市、吉林市、白山市、白城市为雷击灾害高风险区;延边朝鲜族自治州为中风险区。

Risk assessment and regionalization of Jilin lightning disaster based on analytic hierarchy process model

Lightning disaster is one of the most important nature disasters. It has an important meaningto found the lightning disaster risk zoning of the area. In this paper, using the number of thunderstormdays in a year of Jilin province between 1977 and 2012,and lightning disaster statistics between 2002and 2012,referring to the population density of Jilin province, social and economic characteristics likecity development, selecting the number of thunderstorm days, lightning disaster frequency, economicvulnerability modulus and life vulnerability modulus as evaluation index of the lightning disaster risk,the risk assessment formula to divide the risk grade of lightning is established. The results show thatthe city of Changchun,Siping,Tonghua and Liaoyuan are strong risk regions of lightning disaster,thecity of Songyuan, Jilin, Baishan and Baicheng are high risk regions of lightning disaster, and theYanbian Korean autonomous is a medium risk region.