AR模型在宝珠寺水库实时洪水预报校正中的应用

人类活动改变了流域下垫面,对洪水预报精度产生极大的影响,引进实时校正模型以提高洪水预报精度。根据宝珠寺水库的自然地理和水文气象特性,宝珠寺水库实时洪水预报采用新安江模型,实时校正模型采用时间序列AR模型。利用10年历史降雨径流资料,对新安江和实时校正模型的参数进行率定,并利用近年的2次洪水对模型进行检验,检验结果表明实时校正能明显地提高洪水预报的精度。

Application of AR model for flood forecasting correction in Baozhusi Reservoir

The Watershed underlying surface was changed by Human activities and it influences the precision of flood forecasting, so it is necessary that the real-time correction model was introduced to improve the accuracy of flood forecasting. AR model of time series was used to correct the results of flood forecasting for Baozhusi Reservoir. The simulation results for actual flood showed that the real-time correction model can improve the accuracy of flood forecasting effectively.