预警雷达对弹道导弹目标的检测概率计算

预警雷达对弹道导弹目标的检测概率是影响弹道导弹防御系统作战效能的重要因素，是体现雷达预警性能的关键指标。该文结合导弹飞行仿真与雷达预警探测仿真两个领域，通过弹道导弹运动、目标RCS计算、雷达探测信噪比与雷达检测概率讨。算等数学模型，构建了预警雷达的预警功能仿真模型。采用导弹与预警雷达间的相对距离、速度与电磁入射角等交互参数，针对不同突防弹道的弹道导弹目标，对预警雷达检测概率进行了计算分析。仿真结果表明，采用该方法能够准确计算预警雷达对弹道导弹的检测概率与预警时间，满足导弹突防能力评估与雷达作战效能评估的需要。

Calculation of Detecting Probability of Warning Radar for Ballistic Missile Targets

The detecting probability of the warning radar is one of critical factors to the efficiency of ballistic missile defense system, and it is also a typical parameter of the warning radar. Integrating the ballistic missile and radar fields, the article constituted a warning model of radar including the missile movement model, the missile RCS model and the detecting probability model and so on. Adopting the mutual information between the radar and the missile such as the relative distance, relative velocity and the detecting angle, the article calculated the detecting probabilities of warning radar for different penetration trajectories of the ballistic missile. The simulation results proved that the method can calculate the warning probability and warning time precisely, and it can meet the requirements of the effectiveness analysis of the missile and radar.