圈闭成藏的可靠性评价方法研究

最大限度降低勘探风险,提高勘探成功率一直是地质勘探家梦寐以求的目的。圈闭作为油气勘探的直接对象,其评价结果的正确性直接关系到油气勘探的成败,可靠的评价会有效的降低勘探风险,提高勘探效益。本文在总结常规圈闭评价上,以油气成藏系统理论为依据,将可靠性理论引入圈闭评价,首次提出了“圈闭成藏的可靠性”及其评价思路,在对影响圈闭成藏的可靠性的主、客观因素进行剖析的基础上,建立了圈闭成藏可靠性评价的地质概念模型、数学模型和评价体系,为进一步探索可靠性理论在油气勘探中的运用作了尝试。 

STUDYING ON THE EVALUATION METHOD OF TRAP ACCUMULATION RELIABILITY

Reducing exploration risks to the lowest limit and raising the successful probability of exploration are always the aims which geological explorers long for day and night. As the direct targets of hydrocarbon exploration, the correctness of evaluation results for traps will be derectly related to the success or failure of hydrocarbon exploration. Reliable evaluation can effectively reduce exploration risks and raise exploration benefits. By summing up the evaluation methods of conventional traps and according to the theory of hydrocarbon accumulation systems, the theory of reliability is introduced into trap evaluation in this paper, and "the reliability of trap accumulation" and its evaluation train of thought are advanced for the first time. Based on the analysis of subjective and objective factors which affect the reliability of trap accumulation, the geological conceptive model, the mathematical model and the evaluation system for the evaluation of trap accumulation reliability are established. This makes an attempt to further approach the application of the reliability theory to hydrocarbon exploration.