大连市住宅市场潜在需求信心指数研究

为了量化消费者购房信心，预测房地产市场走势，文章基于消费者情绪指数法，设计了大连住宅市场潜在需求调查问卷，并分别于2011 年大连春季房交会和夏季房交会组织实地调查，在通过信度和效度检验证明问卷可靠性的基础上，构建并计算了大连住宅市场潜在需求信心指数。研究结果表明当前大连住宅市场潜在需求不太旺盛，消费者观望情绪较浓，房地产开发商和政府应针对市场实际情况，实施谨慎的投资决策和遏制房价快速上涨的宏观调控。

Confidence Index of Potential Demand in the Dalian Residential Market

In order to quantify the confidence of consumers and forecast the developing trends of real estate market，the paper adopted consumer sentiment index method to design the questionnaire of residential market potential demand in Dalian. Through the field survey of Dalian spring and summer real estate fairs in 2011，the confidence index of potential demand in Dalian residential market was constructed and calculated based on the questionnaire’s reliability and validity testing. The results indicate that the potential demand for current residential market is not strong. According to the present market situation，developers should make prudent investment and the government should formulate policies to curb raid rise of housing price.