国际工程承包市场竞争环境分析方法

后金融危机下国际工程承包市场开始复苏，国际承包商之间的竞争正越演越烈。为了深入分析国际工程承包市场竞争环境，构建了基于市场结构的指标体系，结合蒙特卡洛模拟分析市场竞争态势。比较传统分析结果与模拟分析结果发现，模拟分析结果为判断国际工程承包市场竞争态势提供了更多的信息。趋势图分析指出了市场稳定与否及其外部影响因素，敏感性分析识别出对市场竞争环境影响较大的承包商，获得了承包商基于市场占有率的相关系数矩阵，并据此提出了国际承包商之间的竞合关系模型。应用实例验证了提出方法的有效性，具有较好的实用价值。

Methods for Analyzing the Competitive Environment of International Contracting Market

The Monte-Carlo Simulation was introduced to quantify the uncertainty in the international contracting market and its environment based on three indexes indentified by the paper. Then the tendency and sensitivity of the international contracting market competition and the identified models between different contractors were studied. Finally an example was analyzed using this method to illustrate its credible and useful in practice as one method for analyzing the contracting marketing，which is very helpful for Chinese construction enterprises to implement the “Go-Out” strategy.