城市会展与经济增长关系实证研究

为了更好地揭示城市会展与经济增长间的关系，弥补投入产出分析和可计算一般均衡模型的缺陷，以广州市为例，利用协整分析和Granger 因果关系检验进行实证研究，建立了城市会展与三次产业结构之间的向量误差纠正模型。检验结果表明:城市会展与城市经济之间存在互动关系；城市会展经济系统具有涌现性特征；会展需求、成交金额与工业产出、服务业产出之间协整关系中短期有效，但从长期来看，城市建设管理者与会展经济参与主体需谨慎对待互动关系所带来的不确定风险。

Empirical Analysis of City Exhibition and Economic Growth

In order to clarify the relationships between city exhibitions and economic growth and overcome the disadvantages of the input-output model and the computable general equilibrium model，this paper established a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for city exhibitions. The paper also established the industrial structures by using the cointegration analysis and Granger causality test for the city of Guangzhou in China. The test results show that the interactive relationship exists between city exhibitions and economic growth. The economic system of city exhibitions has the emergent characteristics. The cointegration relationships among exhibition requirements，turnovers and industrial output，and services output is effective in the short term. From a long term view，the city construction managers and participants of the city exhibitions need to deal with the uncertainty risks brought by interactive relationships.