长江三峡水库诱发地震危险性分析

三峡水库是长江干流上一个巨型水利工程，拟定坝高185m，正常蓄水位175m,防洪库容221.50亿m^3。三峡工程涉及的地质问题很多，水库诱发地震是主要研究的几个问题之一。本文按三峡库区的地质条件，将三峡库区分为三个库段进行讨论，并采用灰色系统理论聚类分析的方法，对其诱发地震的强度进行了预测。认为三峡水库诱发地震的最危险库段在庙河——奉节段，其强度可达5.0-6.0级。

Risk Analysis of Reservoir Induced Earthquake in the Three Gorge Project

The Three Gorge reservoir is a large hydraulic Project on the main Yangzi River. The dam height is 185m. The normal pool level is 175m and the flood control storge is 22. 15G m3. There are many geological problems relay to the project. The reservoir induced earthquake is one of some important problems need to be studied. According to the geological condition of the reservoir area,the paper studies the area in three sections and predicts the seismic intensity by the new method of Grey Clustering in Grey System Theory. The result show that the section from Miaohe to Fengjie is the most dangerous part to create induced earthquake in whole Three Gorges Reservoir. The intensity will be between 5. 0 and 6. 0 degree.