模糊优选神经网络BP模型在黄河内蒙段封开河预报中的应用

黄河内蒙段地处黄河流域最北端,由于它特殊的地理位置、水文气象条件、河道特性,几乎年年发生凌汛。在分析凌汛成因影响因素的基础上,选取合适的预报因子,基于模糊优选神经网络BP模型,对黄河内蒙段封河、开河日期进行样本训练和预报方案验证。预报结果表明,模糊优选神经网络冰凌预报模型计算简便,精度良好。

Application of fuzzy optimization neural network BP approach in forecasting freeze-up and break-up date in the Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River

The Inner Mongolia reach lies in the top north of the Yellow River.Every year,ice flood occurs in this district because of its special geographical position,hydro-meteorological conditions and river characteristics.Based on analysis of all kinds of factors influencing ice flood,some forecasting indicators are selected,and a new fuzzy optimization neural network BP approach is proposed.The application of this new approach in forecasting the freeze-up and break-up date of the Inner Mongolia reach of the Yellow River shows that this new approach is of high accuracy and the calculation procedure is simple.