软土地铁盾构隧道环缝张开可靠度分析

软土地铁盾构隧道运营后，受各种内外部因素影响，隧道产生较大的不均匀沉降，进而产生不同程度的环缝张开,严重影响运营安全。在综合考虑隧道衬砌几何尺寸、纵向曲率半径及沿隧道纵向抗压抗拉刚度比基础上,同时考虑认识不确定性及随机不确定性，通过区间Monte Carlo抽样模拟计算环缝张开的失效概率区间。讨论了环缝失效概率随不同纵向曲率半径及衬砌环沿隧道纵向不同抗压抗拉刚度比的变化情况，定量化的得到两者在一定失效概率区间下的控制范围。为地铁运营养护决策的制定、优化结构和防水设计提供依据。

Reliability Analysis on Metro Shield Tunnel Segment Joint in Soft Soil

After operation of the metro, there has been increasing longitudinal nonuniform settlements of shield tunnel due to various interior and exterior factors, and then some expansion of shield tunnel segment joint develops to varying degrees, which seriously impacts on the safety of the train. Taking geometric dimension of segment, curvature radius, stiffness ratio in longitudinal, uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty into consideration, an interval Monte Carlo method has been developed which combines simulation process with the interval analysis to estimate the probability of shield tunnel segment joint failure. Finally, the interval of the failure probability is obtained. Case studies are presented to discuss the effect of different curvature radius and stiffness ratio in longitudinal on the failure probability. Herce, the control sphere of the two factors is obtained under the certain interval of the failure probability. The results provide the guidance for tunnel protection,waterproof design and construction technique of shield tunnel.