| 抚宁县电力负荷的中期预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘文贵,瞿坦. 抚宁县电力负荷的中期预测[J]. 华北水利水电学院学报, 2003, 24(1): 32-34 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘文贵 瞿坦 |
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| 作者单位： | 华中科技大学,控制科学与工程系,湖北,武汉,430074 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据秦皇岛市抚宁县 1992～ 2 0 0 1年 10a的实际用电量数据 ,采用灰色GM(1,1)模型对未来 10a的用电量进行预测 .因未通过关联度校验和后验差检验 ,故提出了灰色指数平滑预测方法 ,先对原始数据序列进行一次指数平滑 ,然后再建立灰色模型 .经检验模型合格 ,同时提高了预测精度
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| 关 键 词： | 电力负荷 预测 灰色模型 指数平滑 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-5634(2003)01-0032-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002-09-18 |
The Mid-prediction on Power Load of Funing County |
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| LIU Wen gui,QU Tan. The Mid-prediction on Power Load of Funing County[J]. Journal of North China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power, 2003, 24(1): 32-34 |
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| Authors: | LIU Wen gui QU Tan |
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| Abstract: | The prediction is attempted to make on the power consumption to the next following 10 years from the year of 1992 to 2001 according to the practical consumption data in Funing County,Qinhuangdao City.The prediction is based on the grey model.As it doesn't pass the relevance testing and post tesing error testing,the load prediction of grey model is put forward.First,the original data in order is arranged,then the grey model is set up.The accuracy of the prediction can be raised if the testing model is qualified. |
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| Keywords: | power load prediction grey model arrangement of data in order |
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